Saturday, September 19, 2009

Curious Circumstances

It's curious. A couple of weeks ago, the Israeli press were hot and bothered by their Prime Minister's disappearance. It later turns out that Netanyahu had gone to Russia on a secret mission to see Putin. Then we get the news from the international atomic regulators that Iran (surprise surprise) really does have the capability to create nuclear weapons and very soon will have ICBMs to launch them to just about to any target in the world. Then the Iranian president (again) announces that the holocaust never happened and that Israel will soon no longer exist. Finally the other bookend to this interesting set of facts is the Obama administration's announcement that it is changing course on the Bush administration's decision to place missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic. Putin then announces that Obama has made a brave decision. The Poles and Czechs rightly complain that they have been betrayed by America.

The Poles and Czechs have every right to be concerned given Russia's reincarnated imperialism over the past few years. Last August's incursion into Georgia and the Russians' disputes with the Ukrainians understandably have the Poles and Czechs wondering if they are next in a re institution of a Soviet era type buffer between Russia and western Europe.

My first reaction to this set of circumstances was that the Obama administration was simply appeasing another autocratic state. It seems that is what liberals like to do since they so often profess being uncomfortable with the projection of power externally even though domestically they revel in it.

That being said, I wonder if something else is going on. My suspicious mind asks whether a deal was cut with Russia not to seriously interfere with an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear processing facilities. Netanyahu's secret meeting with Putin can really have no other explanation. Although Iran is almost a Russian client state, the Russians have to be concerned with a nuclear Iran to their south. It would be in Russia's long term interests to have a non-nuclear Iran even though the Russians effectively exploit Iran's conflict with the west over the issue. Could the Obama administration have exchanged the missile program that was such a huge irritant to the Russians for Russia's tacit approval for an Israeli strike on Iran?

If that is indeed what happened, then perhaps the Obama administration will have made its first adult foreign policy decision.

On the other hand, my speculation as to these curious circumstances may be completely off base. We may simply be seeing, once again, a 1938 type of appeasement of a quasi dictatorship which results in a betrayal of good friends in the name of achieving peace in our times. We all know how that turned out in 1939.

In any event, I think you will agree these are some curious circumstances.